Demographics is Wisconsin’s Destiny

Lost in the fierce debate over the future of Republican Party of Wisconsin Chairman Brian Schimming amid a decade-long losing streak is an even more uncomfortable reality than an incompetent GOP: A steadily changing electorate that is turning the state bluer with each passing election.

After dominating statewide elections in the Scott Walker era, Republicans have won just four of them since 2017: President Trump in 2024, Senator Ron Johnson and State Treasurer John Leiber in 2022, and State Supreme Court Justice Brian Hagedorn in 2019 (which, given Hagedorn’s record, was something of a Pyrrhic victory).

Wisconsin’s Republican Party has rightfully taken a good deal of the blame for this, as its lackluster fundraising and spotty candidate selection are a perpetual problem, but a far greater issue may be out of its (or anyone’s) control.

From 2010-2020, Wisconsin saw dramatic outward migration as the reliably conservative Walker coalition in Milwaukee County and the surrounding WOW (Waukesha, Ozaukee, and Washington) Counties reached retirement age and left for sunnier skies down south.

These were not traditional snowbirds, however, as many of them became residents of their new states, especially in Florida, Nevada, and Texas, which do not have a state income tax. This, combined with their much more favorable wintertime weather, has made them ideal retirement destinations, and not just from Wisconsin.

Florida and Texas—the two largest Republican states—are gaining residents so quickly that both are estimated to gain four additional Congressional seats (and four more electoral votes) following the 2030 Census. Conversely, the largest Democrat states—California, New York, and Illinois—are projected to lose three, two, and one seats respectively.

This is part of a national trend of Americans voting with their feet and fleeing high taxes and inefficient (or utterly insane) governments for the greener pastures of red states. All the states projected to lose seats in the next redistricting are blue ones: California, New York, Illinois, Massachusetts, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Oregon, and Rhode Island. Likewise, every state projected to gain a seat is a red one: Texas, Florida, Idaho, Utah, and Arizona.

Wisconsin, too, is gaining population, but almost all of it is due to the unprecedented increase in illegal immigration during the Biden era. From mid-2023 to mid-2024, the state gained 22,146 residents through “international migration,” but only 6,332 from other states.

The vast majority of them, of course, are ineligible to vote (for now), but those who are have moved overwhelmingly to Wisconsin’s most liberal areas. Dane County’s population has grown by 2.5%—an estimated 13,000 people—since 2020 and that number is only expected to rise even as Wisconsin’s population declines.

The Department of Administration estimates that over the next 25 years, the state will lose roughly 200,000 residents. However, Dane County’s population will increase by a whopping 38%, making it an even bigger factor in statewide elections than it already is and likely turning Wisconsin even bluer than it already has.

Even more liberal leadership will inevitably lead to even more outward migration of conservatives (as it has in other blue states), giving Democrats an ever-more ironclad grip on power.

This is not to say that all hope is lost—President Trump did, after all, just win a resounding victory in the state in November—but this is the reality that Wisconsin’s conservatives must face: Either evolve and adapt to dramatically shifting voter demographics or be forever crushed by them.