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October 30, 2024 | By Benjamin Yount
Policy Issues
Culture Economy

Marquette Law School Poll: Big Drop in Personal Finances, Could Help Trump

"We're looking at about a 15-point decline in people's sense of their families financial situation," Charles Franklin, Marquette Law School Poll.

Neck and Neck: Harris Leads

The presidential race in Wisconsin remains too close to call in the latest Marquette Law School Poll, but there are signs that pollsters say are encouraging for former President Trump.

The final Marquette Poll came out Wednesday, it gives Kamala Harris a 50-49 lead over the former president.

“This is a little bit tighter than we were a month ago at the end of September when it was a four-point Harris lead. So the race has tightened a little bit,” Marquette chief pollster Charles Franklin said. “If we include those folks who say they haven't decided, that still only is small but it's 5%...it doesn't shift the relative margin, it's still a one-point margin between Harris and Trump.”

However, Franklin said nine percent of voters say they’re not planning to vote for either Harris or Trump.

“I think one of the serious uncertainties is how many of this nine percent stick with one of these third parties, how many of them choose not to vote, and how many of them decide to vote for either Harris or for Trump in the end,” Franklin added.

Robert F Kennedy Jr. leads the group of third party candidates with five percent of the vote.

Franklin said the race in Wisconsin is close enough that he wouldn’t be surprised if Trump wins, or if Harris wins.

If Trump wins, however, Franklin said the poll suggests it will be because Wisconsin families are struggling.

“If you look at the entire Trump Administration, the percent saying they were living comfortably was around 60%,” Franklin explained. “When Biden takes office in the summer of 2021, it remains at around 60% living comfortably. But after that is when inflation hits, and [people’s] views become decidedly less positive. Since early 2022, and in the last year, it's fluctuated between 45% and 50%. But it's been more around 45% living comfortably. So we're looking at about a 15-point decline in people's sense of their families financial situation.”

Franklin said that same idea is seen in Trump’s approval rating, which the new poll puts at 47%.

“There's been a lot of talk about people with rosey-remembrances of the Trump Administration,” Franklin added. “I don't see it in our data. In fact, what we see is people's recollection of how they felt -- or evaluation of how it was -- actually matches nearly perfectly what they said at the time in 2020, a little bit negative, but not nearly as negative as the evaluation of Joe Biden right now.”

The latest poll was conducted Oct. 16-24, 2024, interviewing 834 Wisconsin registered voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, and 753 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points.

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