Wisconsin Black Vote Similar to 2020 Levels

A new look at Wisconsin’s Black vote doesn’t show a large drop-off, though there is some difference in who Black voters may have voted for.

Marquette Law School Lubar Center research fellow John D. Johnson posted some of his analysis of Tuesday’s election on Twitter.

Johnson said the Black vote in Wisconsin was similar to 2020’s.

“An early look at that data suggests [Wisconsin’s] Black voter turnout was similar to 2020 levels. In 153 majority Black wards: 96,300 votes cast in 2024. 99,400 cast in 2020,” Johnson wrote Thursday. “Milwaukee's population fell by [about] 13,000 since 2020. Likely accounting for the difference (and maybe then some).”

The Associated Press reported this week that President-elect Trump got more votes from Black voters this year, largely driven by young black men.

Kamala Harris still received 83% of the Black vote, but had much-publicized troubles with many of the young Black men who the AP says voted for Trump.

The AP says the Latino vote in America was much closer. About 56% of Latinos voted for Harris according to the AP. Another 42% voted for Trump.

Johnson said it’s tough to break down Wisconsin’s vote totals by race. So he looked at majority wards, and income levels.

“Wisconsin doesn't collect race in its voter registration data, so, to make [my] graph, I aggregated 2020 census block data into ward boundaries. By my count there are 153 majority Black wards, 53 majority Latino wards, and 3,063 majority White wards,” Johnson explained. “In the majority Black wards the Democratic vote share remains very high, but has slipped by one to three points in each of the past elections. The big change is in the relatively small set of majority Hispanic wards. The Democratic margin of victory fell from 61 points in 2016, to 52 in 2020, and 42 in 2024.”

Johnson’s analysis also looked at Wisconsin’s white vote, and compared Trump’s victory to Democratic U.S. Senator Tammy Badlwin’s win on Tuesday.

“Taken as a whole, the majority white wards lean slightly Republican. Trump's 2024 vote share fell halfway between his 2016 and 2020 performance. Baldwin's vote share fell 9 points from 2018, but improved by two points over Mandela Barnes’ 2022 Senate run.”

The other part of Johnson’s analysis looked at income based on the wealthiest and poorest wards in the state.

“It is exactly these two kinds of places that are the base of the Democratic Party. Democrats are strongest in the poorest fifth of wards, followed by the wealthiest fifth. Lately, Republicans have won everything in between,” Johnson wrote. “Setting aside their baseline level of support, [his] graph also shows which places are growing more or less enthusiastic about the parties. Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton tied in the wealthiest fifth of wards in 2016. Biden and Harris each one them by six points. Meanwhile, the Democratic margin of victory in the poorest fifth of wards slid from 19% in 2016, to 16% in 2022, and 12% in 2024.”

The AP says 3.4 million people voted in Wisconsin on Tuesday, or 72.6% of eligible voters. That’s just below the 73.2% of people who voted in the 2004 presidential election.