MU Poll: Democrats Have Massive Mail-In Vote Lead, Republicans Lead With In-Person Voters

More than a million people in Wisconsin have already voted early this year, but how they voted early largely depends on the political party.

The latest Marquette Law School Poll took a look at the early voting trends so far this year, and those trends show a massive lead for Democrats in voting through the mail.

“Among people who say they've either already voted absentee by mail, or they plan to vote absentee by mail, it's Trump 30 and Harris 70. That's a pretty big gap,” chief pollster Charles Franklin said.

However, Franklin said that trend flips when it comes to in-person voting.

“Among those voting early, but in-person it's Trump with a five-point lead, 52-47,” Franklin explained. “And of those who say they will vote in-person on Election Day it's Trump with a 12-point lead, 56-44.”

The latest numbers show that over 705,000 people have voted early, in-person through the end of October.

That’s 50,000 more than who voted early, in-person in 2020.

However, early voting overall is still behind 2020’s pace.

Four years ago nearly 1.4 million people voted through the mail by the last day of October.

This year, that number was just over 519,000.

“Maybe it's hard to remember, but back in 2016 and before, Wisconsin was not a particularly early voting state. We had absentee voting of course, but it was not a huge thing,” Franklin explained. “It really, of course, exploded during the pandemic. And during the pandemic, we saw the big difference between Election Day and absentee votes. That looks to be very much the case this year as well.”

And Franklin said Election Day 2024 will likely once again see lead changes, or at least vote swings.

“As a practical matter, it does mean that once again we should expect the early count of returns from precincts, which are primarily in person, to lean Republican. We should expect the late absentee votes to lean Democratic, possibly very heavily Democratic,” Franklin said. “So we will probably see shifts through the election counting processes as this imbalance between Election Day preferences, and early voting -- especially absentee by mail -- happens.”

The latest Marquette Law School Poll, which is also the last for this election, gave Harris a one-point lead over former President Trump 50-49.

Franklin said it shouldn’t surprise anyone if either candidate wins.